Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 2 July 2013

…. Dry Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a weakening cold from extends southwestward from Alabama into the northern Gulf of Mexico and into south Texas south of Corpus Christi and north of Brownsville. Surface high pressure is north of the front from the Great Lakes and over the plains states. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are north northeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a unseasonably deep trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is  over the eastern half of the USA as the strong area of upper air high pressure continues over the western part of the country centered over northeastern Nevada and southern Idaho. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 25 to 35 mph which is very unusual for this time of year.

A dry summer weather pattern continues across our area. Overall, the atmosphere continues to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area.. to our west.. still having an influence locally acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.

Latest computer guidance is suggesting a return to a southerly surface wind and increased moisture and atmospheric instability by Thursday and Friday into the weekend. Even so, I’m just not very excited by rain chances at this point so I will not include rain chances in my forecast at this point.

Daytime high temperatures over the next seven days will be at seasonal averages with nighttime lows a little below seasonal averages tonight and then warming back to near average thereafter.

The tropics.. the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.. continue quiet for now.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel