Updated 845am CDT Monday / 1 July 2013

…. Temperatures Down a Few Degrees Over the Coming Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold from extends westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas south of Corpus Christi to near Eagle into southwest Texas to near El Paso. Surface high pressure is north of the front over the plains states. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is  over the eastern half of the USA as the strong area of upper air high pressure continues over the western part of the country. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northerly 20 to 30 mph which is very unusual for this time of year.

In the wake of the record high temperatures last Friday and Saturday and a series of weak cold fronts, a dry summer weather pattern continues across our area. Overall, the atmosphere continues to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area.. to our west.. still having an influence locally acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.

Latest computer guidance is suggesting a return to a southerly surface wind and increased moisture and atmospheric instability by Friday into next weekend. Even so, I’m just not very excited by rain chances at this point so I will not include rain chances in my forecast at this point.

Daytime high temperatures over the next seven days will be at or just below seasonal averages with nighttime lows a little below seasonal averages through mid week.

The tropics.. the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.. continue quiet for now.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel