Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 28 June 2013

…. More Summertime Heat ….
…. Weak Cold Front Due Tomorrow ….
…. Temperatures Down a Few Degrees Late Weekend into Early Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure extends westward from the southwest North Atlantic Ocean westward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is settling southward from the Missouri bootheel.. northern Arkansas.. the Red River country of Oklahoma/Texas and northwestward into southeastern Colorado. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is deepening over the eastern half of the USA as the area of upper air high pressure.. that has been to our west has settled more westward into the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground becoming more pronounced north northeasterly at 10 to 20 mph.

The dry and summer weather pattern continues through the next few days. Overall, the atmosphere continues to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area over the area acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels over the next seven days with highs above 100 degrees today and tomorrow.

Latest computer guidance still suggests that the weak late season cold front will move southeastward into our area by tomorrow afternoon given the shift in the upper air pattern and the more pronounced northerly wind aloft, which is quite unusual for this time of year. Even with the lift, associated with the frontal system, moving into the area, the question is whether it will be able to overcome the stable summertime atmosphere in place. At best, I think, we’re looking at a 10 to 15% probability of precipitation as this front settles south southeastward into the area in the 1pm to 10pm time period tomorrow.

I will drop temperatures closer to seasonal temperatures.. mid 90s for highs.. for Sunday into the first part of next week.

The tropics remain fairly quiet for now.

Have a good Friday night and a safe weekend…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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