Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 27 June 2013

…. Little Change For Now With a Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continuing ….
…. Guidance Still Suggests a Pattern Change by Sunday into Early Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure extends westward from the southwest North Atlantic Ocean into the southeastern USA and lower Mississippi Valley. Low pressure is situated over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. or surface low pressure extending southwestward from the low into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure area is spinning counterclockwise over the northeastern Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Canada. Another trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is over the eastern USA seaboard. An area of upper air high pressure is situated over the southwestern USA and northern Mexico into west Texas. and northeastern Mexico. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are north northeasterly at 10 to 20 mph.

It looks like the dry and summer weather pattern will continue through the next few fays. The atmosphere continues to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area over the area acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere. Temperatures will be above seasonal levels over the next seven days with highs above 100 degrees.

The latest guidance does suggest.. and I’d like to watch this over the next day or two.. a weak late season cold front will move southeastward into our area by late Sunday into Monday as the upper air patterns shifts a bit allowing for a stronger northerly wind aloft, which is quite unusual for this time of year. Even with the lift, associated with the frontal system, moving into the area, the question is whether it will be able to overcome the stable summertime atmosphere in place. I’m continuing my dry seven day forecast for now as I watch this possibility.

The tropics remain fairly quiet for now.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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