Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 26 June 2013

…. Little Change For Now ….
…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Guidance Suggest a Pattern Change by Sunday into Early Next Week ….

On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure extends westward from the southwest North Atlantic Ocean into the southeastern USA. Low pressure is situated over western Kansas and eastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. or surface low pressure extending southwestward from the low into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure area is spinning counterclockwise over the eastern Pacific and the northwestern part of the USA. An area of upper air high pressure is situated over Texas and northeastern Mexico. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are relatively light and variable with winds less than 25 mph.

It looks like the dry and summer weather pattern will continue through the next seven days. The atmosphere continues to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area over the area acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere. Temperatures will be  above seasonal levels over the next seven days with highs near or just above 100 degrees.

The latest guidance does suggest.. and I’d like to watch this over the next day or two.. a weak late season cold front will move southeastward into our area as the upper air patterns shifts a bit allowing for a more northerly wind aloft, which is quite unusual for this time of year. Even with the lift, associated with the frontal system, moving into the area, the question is whether it will be able to overcome the stable summertime atmosphere in place. I’m continuing my dry seven day forecast for now as I watch this possibility.

The tropics also remain fairly quiet for now.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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