Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 19 June 2013
…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the southwest North Atlantic Ocean and westward over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front extends westward from the southeastern USA into central Mississippi and northern Louisiana and central Texas into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. extends southwestward from northern Mississippi and middle/western Tennessee into central Texas south of Waco then turns northwestward across far northwest Texas. Given this surface pressure pattern, being to the south of the stationary front, surface winds are southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level low pressure area is along the coast of the Pacific northwest with an area of upper air high pressure over northern Mexico and southwest Texas. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 20 to 25 mph.
Daytime heating may combine with available moisture and instability to produce very isolated rain showers and thunderstorms mainly north and east of the Austin metro area later this afternoon into the evening. Given the very low rainfall probability (less than 10% at any given location), I am not including a rain chance in my local forecast.
Other than that very slim rain chance northeast of the area.. it looks dry and summer like through the remainder of the new week and through next weekend with the atmosphere continuing to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area over the southern plains acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere. Temperatures will be at or above seasonal levels over the next seven days with no rain mentioned in the forecast.
The tropics also remain fairly quiet for now. Tropical depression #2 is over the coast of southern Mexico in the southern part of the Bay of Campache. As it continues westward ashore into Mexico today into tonight.. it will continue far enough south that it will not produce any effect locally.
Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel