Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 18 June 2013
…. Upper Air Disturbance and Weak Cold Front Results in Early Morning Rain ….
…. An Otherwise Dry and Stable Weather Pattern over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the southwest North Atlantic Ocean and the southeastern USA. A weakening cold front extends southwestward from northern Mississippi and middle/western Tennessee into central Texas south of Waco then turns northwestward across far northwest Texas. Given this surface pressure pattern and morning rain shower and thunderstorm activity, surface winds are southerly or variable across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… winds are generally zonal (west-to-east) across the USA with a weak upper level disturbance within this front over eastern Oklahoma and Texas. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.
A passing upper air disturbance.. that frankly I did not think would have much effect locally.. produced our morning rain shower and thunderstorm activity today with upwards of 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rain over northern Travis County and as much as several inches of rain over eastern parts of Williamson County. Residual moisture and instability may result in some redevelopment of thunderstorms with afternoon heat later today but I’m expecting only widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.
Beyond today, it looks dry and summer like through the remainder of the new week and through next weekend with the atmosphere continuing to be quite stable with general upper level high pressure area over the southern plains acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere. Temperatures will be at or above seasonal levels over the next seven days with no rain mentioned in the forecast.
The tropics also remain fairly quiet for now. Tropical depression #2 is ashore over southern Mexico and will continue far enough south that it will not produce any effect locally.
Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel