Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 11 June 2013

Dry and Stable Weather Pattern for the Next Seven Days ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the southwest North Atlantic Ocean with low pressure over the eastern slope of the Rockies southwestward into New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough.. or line of low pressure.. is located from the eastern Great Lakes southward into the Appalachians with another upper level low pressure area over northeastern Nevada and southeastern Idaho. Between the two.. an upper level ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is over northern Mexico and south and west Texas. There is also an upper level low moving westward from the western Gulf of Mexico into northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are easterly 20 to 30 mph.

The weak upper level low moving westward into northern Mexico from the Gulf of Mexico and its associated instability may result today in a few rain showers and thunderstorms in areas south of the Austin area proper. At this time, I think that most
of the activity will remain south of the IH10 corridor so I will not include rain chances in our local forecast.

It looks dry and summer like through the new week and next weekend as the atmosphere continues quite stable with the upper level high pressure area over northern Mexico and south and western Texas acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.  Temperatures will be at or above seasonal levels over the next seven days with no rain mentioned in the forecast.

The tropics also remain fairly quiet for now with no development expected over the Atlantic Ocean basin.. including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.. over the next few days.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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