Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 5 June 2013
A Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
A Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow Night into Early Friday ….
Watching a Disturbed Area of Weather over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the eastern third of the country with a deepening low pressure area over the southern great plains and southeastern Rockies. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward from Kansas southwestward into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Within this trough.. a cold front extends from eastern Kansas southwestward through western Oklahoma and into west Texas and central New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of the state.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over northern Mexico into far southwest Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Dakotas southward into south central plains. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.
A pretty typical late spring / early summer weather pattern continues across our area. I expect that a dry weather pattern will continue, with late night and early morning low cloudiness, through tomorrow.
By late tomorrow night into early Friday morning, a weak cold front.. washing out as it moves southeastward.. will move across the area with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Current forecast guidance suggests that upwards to 1/2 inch of rain could occur with the passage of this weak cold front.
It looks dry and summer like for Friday through the weekend and into early next week as the atmosphere becomes more stable once again.
With the 2013 tropical weather season in the Atlantic Ocean basin (Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) now underway, I continue to watch the disturbed area of weather over the eastern Gulf Mexico. Chances have continued to increase that this system will become better organized over the next 24 hours before it moves ashore in the Florida panhandle.
Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel