Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 4 June 2013

A Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
A Cold Front Due Late Thursday Night into Early Friday ….
Watching a Disturbed Area of Weather over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the eastern third of the country with a deepening low pressure area over the plains and eastern Rockies. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending south southwestward from southeastern Colorado and western Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of the state.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over northern Mexico into southwest Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Dakotas southward into central plains with a disturbance within the upper air flow over southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

A pretty typical late spring / early summer weather pattern continues across our area. I expect that a dry weather pattern will continue, with late night and early morning low cloudiness, through tomorrow and into Thursday.

By Thursday night into early Friday, a weak cold front will move southeastward across the area with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Current forecast guidance suggests that upwards to 1/2 inch of rain could occur with the passage of this weak cold front.

It looks dry and summer like for Friday through the weekend and into early next week as the atmosphere becomes more stable once again.

With the 2013 tropical weather season in the Atlantic Ocean basin (Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) now underway, our eyes are on a disturbed area of weather over the southeastern Gulf Mexico in the area between southwest Florida.. western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Chances have increased slightly that this system will become better organized over the next few days but current guidance says that the system will move, with time, more northward toward northwest Florida/Florida panhandle rather than westward toward Texas. I’ll continue to watch this system.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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