Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 30 May 2013

A Mostly Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
A Cold Front Due Late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning ….
As The Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets Underway Saturday, Watching the Tropics ….

On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure is off the eastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front is moving southeastward over central and southwestern Kansas and the Texas panhandle into southeastern New Mexico. Another area of surface high pressure is west of the front over northern Colorado and Utah. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends south southwestward from western Kansas into far southwest Texas. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of the state.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a negatively tilted (oriented northwest to southeast) upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends from Wyoming southeastward through the central plains states. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 30 to 40 mph.

A pretty typical late spring weather pattern continues across our area. Given this type of pattern, I expect that a fairly dry late spring weather pattern will continue late week into the weekend.

By late Saturday into Sunday morning, a weak cold front will move southeastward across the area with a relatively slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Once the system passes, temperatures will fall a few degrees Sunday into Sunday night with a pretty quick return to a southerly wind by late Monday into Monday night and Tuesday.

A quick note regarding the start of the Atlantic Ocean basin start of the hurricane season on Saturday. A day or so before this official start of the season, I am watching the remnants of Pacific storm Barbara drift northward through southeastern Mexico. It is expected.. in one fashion or another.. to emerge into the southern Bay of Campache later today. It is possible, if the system maintains some stronger thunderstorms and its overall circulation, that the NWS/National Hurricane Center may initiate advisories on this system (it would be, I’m told, still known as “Barbara”). I’ll continue to watch for this possibility.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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