Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 29 May 2013
Some Risk of Stronger Thunderstorm West of Austin Today into Tonight ….
A Cold Front Due Late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is off the southeastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean with another weaker high out west over the four corners region. A cold front is moving southward over central and western Kansas and eastern Colorado with a surface low along the front over southwestern Kansas. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends south southwestward from the surface low into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of the state.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is over the western Rockies and intermountain west. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.
A pretty typical late spring weather pattern continues across our area. As the trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure to our west lifts northeastward to our distant northwest, it is possible that a few thunderstorms that develop out west could make it as far east as the IH35 corridor this afternoon into tonight. Some thunderstorms could be severe into tonight along and west of the IH35 corridor. We could still use an inch or two of rain across the area.. given the ongoing drought and the fact that our ground is not saturated. As a result, I do not see much of a widespread flood problem with this passing system.. but perhaps some localized urban flood/low water crossing flooding in areas where thunderstorms occur through tonight.
Once this system passes, a fairly dry and stable weather pattern persists late week into the weekend.
By late Saturday into Sunday morning, a weak cold front will move through the area with a slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Once the system passes, temperatures will fall a few degrees later Sunday into Monday.
Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel