Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 15 May 2013

A Passing Disturbance Produces Rain Today ….
Drier and More Stable Weather Returns by Tomorrow Through the Weekend ….
No Frontal Passages/Air Mass Changes over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA.. the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida with low pressure over west Texas and west Oklahoma. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area of the state.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low is over northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

The upper air low pressure storm system.. to our distant northwest..  will continue to pass slowly west-to-east to the north of the local area. As this system passes and continues to create lift in the atmosphere, enough low level moisture and atmospheric instability will perhaps give us one more shot for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests that another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain could fall over our area.. mainly to our north.. as this system passes slowly eastward overhead later this afternoon.

In the wake of the upper air disturbance, rain chances will diminish by this evening and into the overnight hours and continuing through late week with a more stable late spring weather pattern taking hold late week and through the weekend. With this pattern, you can expect late night and early morning low cloudiness, otherwise a partly cloudy sky with seasonal temperatures.

Have a good Wednesday Night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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