Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 8 May 2013
Rain Chances Return by Late Week into the Weekend ….
Another Late Season Cold Front by Early Saturday ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure is located from the lower Mississippi Valley and the northern Gulf of Mexico with developing low pressure over the southern Rockies with a cold front extending southwestward from southwest Kansas across the northwest Texas panhandle into southern New Mexico. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area of the state.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper air low pressure area is over Virginia with another one over southern Utah. Between the two.. a weakening ridge of upper air high pressure is located from northeastern Mexico into Texas. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.
A more established southerly surface wind has returned as the surface high continues over the southeastern USA. By late week.. another cold front will start southward through the Rockies and plains as the upper low over the Pacific coast moves into the southwestern USA. As our air mass becomes more moist and unstable and as several upper air disturbances approach and move overhead of the area, I’m introducing slim rain shower and thunderstorm chances by later today into tomorrow.
A cold front will move southeastward into Texas late Friday night into Saturday with increased precipitation.. scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected. Once the front passes, slightly cooler temperatures along with a more stable air mass will prevail. Another reinforcing cold front will move through the area next Sunday with will act to reinforce the slightly cooler and drier air mass Sunday into the first part of next week.
Rainfall amounts for the coming week and weekend, based upon the latest NWS guidance, will average a very beneficial one to one and a half inches.
Have a good Wednesday Night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel