Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 7 May 2013
Warmer Temperatures ….
Rain Chances Return by Late Week into the Weekend ….
Another Late Season Cold Front by Early Saturday ….
On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is located from the eastern plains into east Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with developing low pressure over the southern Rockies. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are light across our area of the state.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere…. a strong upper air low pressure area is over Georgia with another one over east central and southeast California. Between the two.. a weakening ridge of upper air high pressure is located from northern Mexico into Texas. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.
With the weak upper level ridge over Texas.. a generally dry and stable weather pattern persists across Texas even as the surface high pressure area has now moved east of the area.
As a result, a more established southerly surface wind has returned as the surface high continues well east of the area. By mid and late week.. another cold front will start southward through the Rockies and plains as the upper low over the Pacific coast moves into the southwestern USA. As our air mass becomes more moist and unstable and as several upper air disturbances approach and move overhead of the area, I’ll introduce rain shower and thunderstorm chances by Thursday into Friday.
A cold front will move southeastward into Texas on Saturday with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected. Once the front passes, slightly cooler temperatures along with a more stable air mass will prevail. Another reinforcing cold front will move through the area next Sunday with will act to reinforce the slightly cooler and drier air mass Sunday into the first part of next week.
Rainfall amounts for the coming week and weekend, based upon the latest NWS guidance, will average a very beneficial one to one and a half inches.
Have a good Monday Night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel