Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 06 August 2015

.. Little Change ..
.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Upper Level High Pressure.. An Atmospheric “Lid”.. Holds On ..

On this Thursday…. surface high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with another centered over southwestern Colorado. Separating the two, a trough.. or line.. if low pressure extends southwestward from a low pressure area over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. continues from Arizona east southeastward across south and central Texas into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low pressure trough extends southward from east of Hudson Bay across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Appalachians and the east coast of the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light and variable.

Our atmosphere continues to be quite stable. Again today, we’ll see afternoon high temperatures around 100 degrees along the IH35 corridor with highs likely to rise.. as the upper air high pressure area strengthens a bit.. into the 100 to 103 degree range by tomorrow into the weekend and even into early next week.

Given the stable weather pattern, as mentioned above, I don’t expect to see much change over the next seven days. With this atmospheric ”lid” in place, cloud development will be suppressed with no mention of rain through the seven day forecast period. The longer range National Weather Service 8 to 14 day outlook.. which carries us into the middle part of August.. indicates little change.

One thing to watch, though… a southeastward moving cold front that may move into Texas by the middle and latter part of next week. At this point, however, I will continue with my dry forecast locally and will not mention any rain chances until the event becomes better defined.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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