Updated 915am CT – Friday / 24 July 2015
.. Little Change ..
.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Longer Range Outlooks Suggest Some Subtle Changes Once We’re in August ..
On this Friday…. a warm front extends eastward from a surface low over southeastern Colorado through northern Oklahoma into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Colorado through eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. Surface high pressure is over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is centered over south and central Texas eastward into southern and western Louisiana. An upper level low pressure trough extends southwestward along west coast of the USA. Another upper level low pressure trough is over the northeastern USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are still light and variable.
As we’ve seen over the last few weeks, a typical summer weather pattern continues with a moist and tropical air mass holding across the area.
More of the same is expected through the seven day forecast period. Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, should keep us dry with afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages. While a few 100 degree readings are possible over areas over the hill country west through southwest of the Austin area through tomorrow.. by Saturday into Sunday, it’s a little more likely that areas along the IH35 corridor will see highs near 100 degrees.
I do not expect any precipitation through the seven day forecast period.
Looking beyond into early August, the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook along with numerical forecast (computer) guidance both suggest that the upper level high.. which has kept temperatures high and conditions dry lately.. may begin to settle westward to be more overhead of the four corners region (AZ, NM, CO, UT). If this materializes.. the currently “capped” atmosphere will become a little a little more unstable with temperatures coming down a couple of degrees. In addition, the latest longer range guidance suggests a cold front moving southward into Texas by next Friday into Saturday. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and will keep you informed.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel