Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 22 July 2015

.. Little Change ..
.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Longer Range Outlooks Suggest Some Subtle Changes Once We’re in August ..

On this Wednesday…. a weak cold front extends westward from the Tennessee Valley region through northwest Mississippi into central Arkansas and into a surface low in southeastern Oklahoma. From there the weak cold front extends west southwestward to south of Wichita Falls to near Lubbock then northwestward through a surface low pressure area over northeastern New Mexico and continuing northwestward into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the northeastern New Mexico surface low southward through eastern New Mexico into far southwest Texas and the Texas Big Bend. Surface high pressure is over the central Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is centered over south and central Texas eastward into far western Louisiana. An upper level low pressure trough extends southwestward over California. An otherwise rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern across the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light and variable.

As we’ve seen over the last few weeks, a typical summer weather pattern continues with a moist and tropical air mass holding across the area.

More of the same is expected through the seven day forecast period. Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, should keep us dry with afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages. While a few 100 degree readings are possible over areas over the hill country west through southwest of the Austin area.. most afternoon high temperatures will remain in the upper 90 degree range through the balance of my seven day forecast period.

I do not expect any precipitation through the seven day forecast period.

Looking beyond into early August, the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook along with numerical forecast (computer) guidance both suggest that the upper level high.. which has kept temperatures high and conditions dry lately.. may begin to settle westward to be more overhead of the four corners region (AZ, NM, CO, UT). If this materializes.. the currently “capped” atmosphere will become a little a little more unstable with temperatures coming down a couple of degrees. I’ll keep my fingers crossed!!

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me: