Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 21 July 2015

.. Little Change ..
.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..

On this Tuesday…. a weakening cold front extends southwestward from the Ohio Valley region through central Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma into a surface low pressure area south of Lubbock then continuing into southwest Texas and then northwestward into southern New Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from western Texas and eastern New Mexico southwestward into northern Mexico. Surface high pressure is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA and eastward across the western Atlantic Ocean. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is centered over south and central Texas eastward into western Louisiana. An upper level low pressure trough extends southwestward over California. An otherwise rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern across the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light and variable.

A typical summer weather pattern continues with a moist and tropical air mass holding across the area.

More of the same is expected through the seven day forecast period. Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, should keep us dry with afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages. While a few 100 degree readings are possible over areas over the hill country west through southwest of the Austin area.. most afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90 degree range through the balance of my seven day forecast period.

I do not expect any precipitation through the seven day forecast period.

Looking beyond, the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook.. pretty much through the remainder of the month and into early August.. strongly suggests a seasonally warm and dryer than average weather pattern continuing.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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