Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 08 July 2015

.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues Locally ..

On this Wednesday…. a weakening stationary front extends from a surface low in extreme southeastern Kansas southwestward into north central Texas then west southwestward to near El Paso then northwestward into southwestern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level high pressure area has moved more eastward and is centered over the southeastern USA and the Gulf of Mexico. A strong upper level low pressure storm system is along and offshore the central and northern California coast in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay area. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light south southwesterly.

A typical summer weather pattern continues with a moist and tropical air mass holding across the area.

Yesterday’s complicating factors.. namely a convectively (thunderstorm) initiated upper level disturbance and the weakening surface stationary front.. have produced excessive rainfall amounts of up to 9 inches in the Lake Buchanan watershed in areas northwest of the lake. A flood warning has been issued by the NWS/San Angelo for the Colorado River for that portion of the river leading into Lake Buchanan. As a result of the rain in the past couple of days, the LCRA indicates, in their latest river report, a forecast rise of 2 to 5 feet on Lake Buchanan over the next seven days.

While we could see a isolated rain showers and thunderstorms develop today with daytime heating.. mainly in areas west of the IH35 corridor.. I just don’t think it supports posting rainfall probabilities in our IH35 corridor forecast.

Beyond today and through the seven day forecast period, upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, should keep us dry with afternoon high temperatures near or even slightly above seasonal averages.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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