Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 11 June 2015

.. Atmosphere Growing More Unstable ..
.. Thunderstorm Chances Return Tomorrow and Continues Through the Weekend ..

On this Thursday…. a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a surface low pressure area over western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Surface high pressure is over the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a weakened high pressure area, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere has continued to shift more southwestward and is centered over northern Mexico. An upper level low pressure disturbance is noted to our east over the lower Mississippi valley and the southeastern gulf coastal areas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure is moving eastward from Hudson Bay southwestward into the Dakotas with another stronger upper level disturbance over southern Nevada. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet, are light north northwesterly.

Our weather pattern locally is becoming more unstable as the upper level high weakens a bit and settles more over northern Mexico. With this shift, although it may not be apparent at this moment, there is less of a “lid” on the atmosphere overhead.

By tomorrow and continuing through our upcoming weekend, our weather pattern will turn a little more unstable as the upper air high pressure area continues to weaken overhead and settles more southwestward away from our area. I’ll keep the slim chance of afternoon or evening rain showers and thunderstorms on Friday with better rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday and through the first part of next week. With lots of Friday and weekend outdoor activities, I remind everyone that frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms that do develop. National Weather Service rainfall guidance continues to suggest that we have the possibility of seeing up to 1 inch or more of rain starting Friday through early next week. Clouds and those precipitation chances will probably result in afternoon high temperatures being down closer to 90 degrees for the weekend into early next week.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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