Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 09 June 2015

.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues For Now ..
.. Afternoon High Temperatures Rise as Ground Dries ..
.. Thunderstorm Chances By Friday and Continuing Through the Weekend ..

On this Tuesday…. a weakening stationary front extends from the Missouri bootheel southwestward into central Arkansas across the ArkLaTex region and north central Texas. Surface high pressure is over the northern Gulf of Mexico, the lower Mississippi Valley and the southern plains. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a high pressure area, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, extends northward from northern Mexico across west Texas and eastern New Mexico southeastward across the Rio Grande River through south Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure is moving eastward over the eastern Great Lakes States with a stronger upper level disturbance well off the Pacific coast west of the southern California coastal waters. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are mostly light and variable.

Even though the upper level high has shrunk a bit, little change is seen over the next couple of days across our area with a dry and stable weather pattern prevailing. The upper level high pressure is acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere keeping rising motion in the atmosphere at bay.

Another factor to consider is the fact that the ground is slowly drying and that is allowing afternoon high temperatures to rise a bit. As a result, afternoon temperatures have warmed to near or slightly above seasonal levels over the last day or two.

By late week and continuing through our upcoming weekend, our weather pattern will turn a little more unstable as the upper air high pressure area continues to shrink and weakens. I’ll introduce a slim chance of afternoon or evening rain showers and thunderstorms on Friday with better rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday and into the first part of next week. A reminder that frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms that do develop. National Weather Service rainfall guidance suggests that we have the possibility of seeing up to 1/2 inch of rain starting Friday through early next week.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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