Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 21 May 2015
.. An Unsettled Spring Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Rain Chances Continue Through Balance of Seven Day Forecast ..
.. Heavy Rain and Some Flooding Possible For This Coming Weekend ..
On this Thursday…. a weakening cold front has moved just southeast of our local area and is located along a line from central Mississippi and northern Louisiana into a surface low pressure area over east Texas. From the low, the front extends southwestward to just northwest of Victoria to near Eagle Pass then into Mexico. Surface high pressure area is over the north central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a counter clockwise rotating upper level low pressure system is over the California west coast around the San Francisco Bay area. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly.
With the broad area of upper air low pressure storm system still out to our west.. we’ll continue to see weak disturbances being ejected eastward, much like spokes on a bicycle wheel, and then moving northeastward across the state of Texas. As these disturbances approach us, we’ll see increased atmospheric lift with increased cloud cover and rain showers and thunderstorm chances through the balance of the seven day forecast period. The weakening cold front.. which passed through our area around 1 to 2 am this morning is located over the Texas coastal plains.. will add to the atmospheric instability and lift as it settles southward today and then returns northward overhead of our local area over the next couple of days. Our best chance of precipitation comes tomorrow through the weekend. As always, with the chance of thunderstorms comes the risk of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.
This morning’s latest guidance.. from the National Weather Service.. continues to suggests than 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall across our area today through early next week. I am watching particularly the mid and latter part of the weekend with the highest chance of rain and thunderstorms.. and potential heavy rain.. for late Saturday into Sunday and even early Monday (Memorial Day).
Temperatures will be cooler today in the wake of the cold front and warm back to slightly below seasonal averages through the balance of the seven day forecast period.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel