Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 20 May 2015
.. A Humid Spring Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Rain Chances Continue Through Balance of Seven Day Forecast ..
.. Heavy Rain and Some Flooding Possible Over This Coming Weekend ..
On this Wednesday…. a weakening cold front is moving southeastward along a line from northwestern Arkansas into north central and northwest Texas westward into New Mexico. Surface high pressure area is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad counter clockwise rotating upper level low pressure system is over the western third of the country from Nevada into northern California and the Pacific northwest. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly.
With the broad area of upper air low pressure storm system still out to our west.. we’ll continue to see weak disturbances being ejected eastward, much like spokes on a bicycle wheel, and then moving northeastward across the state of Texas. As these disturbances approach us, we’ll see increased atmospheric lift with increased cloud cover and rain showers and thunderstorm chances through the balance of the seven day forecast period. The weakening cold front.. to our north.. will add to the atmospheric instability and lift as it settles southward overhead of our local area over the next day or so. While rain chances are down a little today, our better chances of precipitation comes late tonight and continuing tomorrow through the weekend. As always, with the chance of thunderstorms comes the risk of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.
This morning’s latest guidance.. from the National Weather Service.. suggests than 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall across our area today through mid next week. I am watching particularly the mid and latter part of the weekend with the highest chance of rain and thunderstorms.. and potential heavy rain.. for late Saturday into Sunday and even early Monday (Memorial Day).
Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal averages through the next seven days.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel