Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 19 May 2015

.. A Humid Spring Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Rain Chances Continue Through Balance of Seven Day Forecast ..
.. Heavy Rain and Flooding Possible Over This Coming Weekend ..

On this Tuesday…. a weakening cold front is moving southward along a line from western Tennessee and southeastern Arkansas into north central Texas then west northwestward into New Mexico and Colorado. Surface high pressure area is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad counter clockwise rotating upper level low pressure system is over the western third of the country from Nevada into northern California and the Pacific northwest. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly.

With the broad area of upper air low pressure storm system still out to our west.. we’ll continue to see weak disturbances being ejected eastward, much like spokes on a bicycle wheel, and then moving northeastward across the state of Texas. As these disturbances approach us, we’ll see increased atmospheric lift with increased cloud cover and rain showers and thunderstorm chances through the balance of the seven day forecast period. The weakening cold front.. to our north.. will add to the atmospheric instability and lift. The best chance of precipitation comes today into tonight and then again by Thursday.. Friday and into the weekend. With the chance of thunderstorms, of course, comes the risk of dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

The latest guidance.. from the National Weather Service.. suggests than 4 inches or more of additional rain could fall across our area today through early next week. I am watching particularly the mid and latter part of the weekend with the highest chance of rain and thunderstorms.. and potential heavy rain.. for late Saturday into Sunday.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal averages through the next seven days.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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