Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 14 April 2015

.. Cold Front Passed Through Area Last Night ..
.. Rain Chances Still Linger Through Much of the Week ..
.. Another Cold Frontal Passage with Rain Chances Thursday into Friday ..

On this Tuesday…. a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from middle Tennessee and central Mississippi into southeast Texas then just inland along the Texas coast to north of Laredo. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is situated from eastern Kansas southwestward into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper air disturbance is centered over southern Oklahoma southwestward into southwest Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

The cold front, which moved through our area late last night, is weakening this
morning as a stationary front onshore of the Texas coast. A passing upper air disturbance triggered a complex of west to east moving rain showers and thunderstorms to our distant south. By later today into tonight, clouds will break with only a slim chance of precipitation. The relatively quiet weather pattern, less the slim rain chances, will continue through tomorrow and tomorrow night.

By Thursday into Friday, another southeastward moving surface cold front, combined with another advancing upper air disturbance from the west, will result in increased/thickened cloud cover and an increase in rain chances. The cold front is forecast to cross our local area by mid morning Friday. The latest computer, manual and NWS guidance suggests anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain for the local area along with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts and larger hail being the main risk along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk with thunderstorms. Based on the latest very poor performance by this guidance set over the last two weeks locally, at this point, my confidence for this weather event is low. I’ll go.. for at least now.. with slightly lower rain chances and lower rainfall amounts until I am a little more confident in the outcome. As usual, I’ll continue to monitor. Rain chances may linger into the weekend with this weather system.

A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages. A weak cold front, that I originally thought would move through the area Monday now looks to pull up stationary to our northwest late Monday into Tuesday with rain and thunderstorm chances staying to our northwest.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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