Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 25 April 2013

Clouds with Unseasonably Cool Temperatures Continue….
Return to A Little More Sun and Warmer Temps Over the Weekend ….
Another Strong Cold Front for Middle of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a dissipating cold front is over the western and central Gulf of Mexico with high pressure.. north of the front.. now moving eastward from west Tennessee and Arkansas. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are northeasterly across our area of the state.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere…. a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated over the eastern half of the USA. In addition, an upper level low is moving through southern California and northwestern Mexico. Given this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly 15 to 25 mph.

A shallow layer of unseasonably chilly air continues in place across our area in the wake of the mid week cold front. The cold front is over the western and central Gulf of Mexico and is weakening rapidly with the shallow cool air mass over our area still being “overridden” by moisture from the south. The clouds and slim rain chances will continue locally in the post frontal atmospheric environment today through tonight.

By tonight into early tomorrow.. the weakening front will return back northward as a warm front with surface winds returning south southerly. As this moisture returns, our temperatures will warm up considerably.

Tomorrow afternoon and continuing into the weekend, the upper level low pressure disturbance over the southwestern USA will weaken as it moves west southwest to east northeast well north of our local area. This will allow for another weak cold front to move southward into south central Texas on Saturday before it weakens and washes out. As a result of the atmospheric lift associated with the weakening front and the passing upper air disturbance, we could see isolated rain showers and thunderstorms locally with the possibility of one or two of those thunderstorms becoming strong.

You can expect a little more sunshine a continuation of the warmer temperatures for Sunday into the middle part of next week when a strong cold front moves through the area by late next Wednesday afternoon with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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