Updated 915am CT – Friday / 03 April 2015
.. Cold Front Moves Through Later Today ..
.. Moisture Overruns Cooler Surface Air with Clouds / Rain Chances for Weekend ..
.. Clouds Break along with Warmer Temperatures for Early Next Week ..
.. Another Cold Front Due Late Next Thursday ..
On this Friday…. surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA with a southeasterly moving cold front extending from southern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas into a low pressure area over central and eastern Oklahoma then southwestward into north central Texas and far west Texas around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a mostly zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind flow exists over the USA with an embedded weak trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated from the northern plains into the southern Rockies. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
A stronger cold front will cross the area by this afternoon with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing along and just ahead of the advancing frontal boundary. The NWS Storm Prediction Center continues a “marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms for the afternoon hours locally as the front moves through with larger hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind being possible around the strongest thunderstorms. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 inches of rain from this quickly passing weather system.
Once the cooler surface based air moves in, an overrunning weather pattern, where moisture runs back over the top of the cooler surface air, will produce clouds and rain chances tonight through Saturday into Sunday. Daytime high temperatures will remain in the 60s to near 70 for the weekend.
Temperatures will warm with clouds breaking for the early into middle part of next week with another cold front is due by late next Thursday with another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Early guidance suggests that this front could trigger severe thunderstorms over the southern plains states.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today and tonight and through the weekend with the possibility of stronger thunderstorms today as well as rainfall timing and amounts today through the weekend being the main uncertainties. My confidence goes back to high to very high next Monday through Wednesday night before falling back to medium confidence for next Thursday as it regards frontal timing, frontal rainfall timing and amounts as well as any associated severe weather threat being the issues.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel