Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 25 March 2015

.. Another Cold Front with Rain Chances Tonight into Early Tomorrow ..
.. Sunshine and Cooler Temperatures Late Week ..
.. Plenty of Sunshine and Warmer Temperatures for the Weekend ..

On this Wednesday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern part of the USA and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure and a weak series of cold fronts extends westward from northern Arkansas..southeastern Oklahoma.. northwest Texas and northeast New Mexico. A surface trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends from eastern New Mexico and west Texas south southwestward into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a developing broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated from southwest of Hudson Bay through the northern and central plains states then into Arizona and northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.

A stable and warmer weather pattern continues over our area.

With the sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages through the day today.

Another cold front is due late tonight into the daybreak hours tomorrow. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front but the precipitation chances will decrease rapidly by mid morning tomorrow as the front departs to the southeast and cooler and drier air spreads into our area.

Drier air.. with abundant sunshine.. will prevail Thursday and Friday and through our upcoming weekend. After the briefing cooling trend tomorrow, we’ll see the return of a warming trend Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

A passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the introduction of slim precipitation chances by next Tuesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today through tomorrow morning (exact probability of rain, precipitation timing and amounts being the issue). My forecast confidence post cold front tomorrow through Friday and the weekend once again goes to back to very high as a more stable weather pattern returns. Forecast confidence drops back to medium by next Tuesday with the approach of an upper air low pressure disturbance and associated precipitation chances.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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