Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 24 March 2015

.. A Dry.. Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. Another Cold Front with Rain Chances Tomorrow Night into Early Thursday ..
.. Sunshine and Cooler Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend ..

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the eastern third of the USA. Low pressure and a weak series of cold fronts extends westward from the Kansas Oklahoma border into Colorado. A surface trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends from extreme western Oklahoma south southwestward into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a rather zonal, or west-to-east, upper level wind flow holds across the USA with embedded disturbances noted over the western high plains and over the Pacific northwest. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.

A dry.. stable and more springlike warmer weather pattern continues over our area.

With a return south southeasterly surface wind flow, along with the sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages through tomorrow. .

Another cold front is due late tomorrow night into the daybreak hours on Thursday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front but the precipitation chances will decrease rapidly by mid morning Thursday as the front departs to the southeast and cooler and drier air spreads into our area.

Cooler and drier air.. with abundant sunshine.. will prevail Thursday and Friday and through our upcoming weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow. My forecast confidence, with the approaching cold front and rain chances, is high for late tomorrow night into early Thursday (exact probability of rain, precipitation timing and amounts being the issue). My forecast confidence Thursday through Friday and the weekend once again goes to back to very high as a cooler and more stable weather pattern returns.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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