Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 March 2015
.. Two Upper Air Low Pressure Storm Systems to Cross Texas this Week ..
.. A More Unstable Air Mass with Rain Chances on the Increase ..
.. One to Two Inches of Rainfall Possible ..
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure is located from the southeastern USA westward across Texas. A surface trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Nebraska into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure extends north northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico into far east Texas and western Louisiana. A strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula and the adjacent area of the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southerly at 25 to 35 mph.
Several approaching upper level low pressure disturbances.. the first being the system over the southern Baja Peninsula.. will create a more moist and slightly more unstable air mass as we make our way into the new week. As a result, I expect the coming week to be a rather cloudy one with two good chances of rain and even a few heavier thunderstorms around the area.
The first upper air disturbance will move across the area by tomorrow night into Wednesday producing dynamic atmospheric lift and will result in increasing chances of rain and thunderstorms late tomorrow into Wednesday. The latest manual and computer guidance continues the high rain chances with the latest NWS forecast rainfall amounts locally are showing around 1 inch, I would not be surprised if those amounts increased as we advance in the forecast.
Another upper level disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weak cold front will result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by late Thursday into Friday with the clouds and rain chances extending into the weekend. Another inch or so of rain is possible with this weather system as it passes overhead.
Temperatures will be at or slightly above average over the next few days with temperatures cooling a bit to below average by late Thursday through Friday before returning to near average by next weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the exact probability for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel