Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 12 March 2015

.. Clouds Linger ..
.. A Few Sprinkles Westward to the Austin Area ..
.. A More Stable Air Mass with More Sun and Warmer Temperatures on the Way ..

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from coastal Alabama and Florida into a low pressure area over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with the front then extending southward through the western gulf. High pressure is located from the Great Salt Lake southeastward into north central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a rather zonal (west-to-east).. wind pattern continues over the USA with a weakening upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from Texas into northeastern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southerly at 15 to 25 mph.

With the weakening upper level low pressure disturbance moving through Texas and Mexico, we’ve seen, as predicted, clouds lingering back over our area with even some light rainfall earlier this morning.

As a chunk of the upper level low pressure disturbance slowly weakens and moves away from the area.. a drier and more stable weather pattern will build in tomorrow into tomorrow night with skies partially clearing thereafter. However, it should be noted that part of the disturbance will remain over Mexico and may combine with a “backdoor” type of cold front (moving in from the northeast into Texas) to contribute to increased clouds and another chance of rain by the middle part of next week.

For the time being though, a more stable weather pattern will prevail through Friday and through our upcoming weekend and even into early next week. With the increased sunshine over the coming days, temperatures will be warming back to near seasonal averages.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the remainder of the week.. the upcoming weekend.. and into early next week. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for the middle part of next week as it regards the potential for rain.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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