Updated 915am CT – Monday / 09 March 2015
… A Wet Start to the Week …
… A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Mid and Late Week and the Weekend …
… A Warming Trend Kicking In…
On this Monday morning…. a weakening stationary front extends fro central Missouri southwestward into southeast Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Surface high pressure is well to our east over eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from eastern Rockies and central plains into northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are south southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.
An overrunning pattern continues across the area with lower atmospheric flow off the Gulf of Mexico and mid and high level moisture from the Pacific Ocean. With dynamic upper level lift, associated with a strong upper air low pressure disturbance, moving across the area today into this evening, we’ll continue to see waves of rain showers continue through the evening hours. Some periods of moderate to heavy rain may occur. The NWS/Austin-San Antonio continues a Flash Flood Watch for the IH35 corridor counties and counties east of those counties until 7pm this evening. It’s my feeling that we’ll receive an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain today before rain tapers off later this afternoon into this evening with the passage of the upper level low pressure disturbance.
Skies will partially clear tomorrow with a drier and more stable weather pattern prevailing mid and late week and through our upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be warming back to near seasonal averages with the increased sunshine.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high for today into tonight then high to very high for tomorrow through the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel