Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 02 February 2015

…. Much Cooler Temps ….
…. Clouds Return with Rain Chances Tomorrow into Wednesday ….
…. Partial Clearing for Latter Part of the Week through the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface cold front is located from southern Georgia and northwest Florida into the central Gulf of Mexico then west southwestward to well south of Brownsville and into northeastern Mexico. To the north of the front.. high pressure is centered from eastern Nebraska and Kansas southward into north Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from Hudson Bay south southeastward into the southeastern USA. A upper level low pressure disturbance is over the southern part of the Baja Peninsula. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.

A cooler and drier surface air mass is in place across south central Texas in the wake of our latest cold frontal passage which occurred at mid afternoon yesterday. The upper level low pressure disturbance.. to our distant west southwest.. is ushering in mid and upper level moisture with some high level cloudiness across our area.

By tonight into Tuesday, the upper level low pressure disturbance will begin tracking northeast across northern Mexico and then across Texas and our area by late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night and into early Wednesday. As it approaches, we’ll see thickening and lowering clouds by late tonight into Tuesday. As the system moves more overhead late Tuesday into early Wednesday, we’ll increase atmospheric lift and instability a bit with rain chances returning to our forecast. Early projections.. courtesy of the National Weather Service.. don’t indicate that much rain with the passage of this upper level system with rainfall in most areas at 1/4 inch or less.

With the system moving northeastward out of the area by mid morning Wednesday. we’ll see clouds break with another cold front sliding through the area by Wednesday night around midnight.

A dry and stable weather pattern will persist late week into the weekend with a warming trend.

Another cold front.. looking dry in nature.. moves through the area by early next Sunday morning.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days (rain chances, timing and amounts for late tomorrow through tomorrow night and early Wednesday being the primary issue).

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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