Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 30 January 2015

…. Much Cooler Temps ….
…. Clouds with Rain Chances ….
…. Partial Clearing for Early and Middle Part of Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface cold front is moving southeastward along a line from central and southern Georgia into the Gulf of Mexico southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River then westward across the Gulf into far south Texas and northeastern Mexico. High pressure is located.. to the north of the front.. from Minnesota south southwestward into Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northeastward.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from Hudson Bay south southeastward to along the USA eastern seaboard. A developing upper level low pressure disturbance is over California and Nevada southward into northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 20 to 30 mph.

The surface cold front.. which moved through the area early afternoon yesterday.. is well southeast of the area.

A series of Pacific upper level low pressure disturbances has already started to track eastward across the southwestern USA and northern Mexico into Texas.. this will continue through the weekend. This is causing moisture to “overrun” the surface cooler air and clouds to lower quickly today into tonight with rain chances returning for tonight and pretty much through the weekend. This will result in a chilly and wet weather pattern for the weekend. Early guidance suggests, on average, about 1/2 to 1 inch of rain area wide with this system between now and Sunday night.

We’ll see some partial clearing for early next week with a slight chance of rain at times along with below average temperatures continuing.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through the weekend and into next week (rain chances, timing and amounts being primary issue).

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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