Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 27 January 2015

…. Sunshine and Warmer Temperatures Through Mid Week ….
…. Series of Cold Fronts Bringing Much Cooler Temps by Thursday and Beyond ….
…. Clouds Thicken with Rain Chances By Friday Night Through the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is situated from the four corners region southeasterly into south Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated southeastward from the Great Lakes through the eastern half of the USA. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure extends northwestward in a narrow zone from Texas into Wyoming. An upper air low pressure disturbance is over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.

With the upper level ridge of high pressure overhead, a dry and stable air mass remains in place with some high clouds at or above 25,000 feet dominating. This pattern will continue through the next day or so with afternoon temperatures running about 15 degrees above average for this time of year.

By late tomorrow into Thursday, as the upper level high pressure weakens, we’ll see a stronger surface cold front surge southeastward across Texas with cooler air moving into the state. The cooler surface air mass will be reinforced by additional surges of cooler air moves in through the weekend.

Most importantly, however, a series of Pacific upper level low pressure disturbances will track eastward across the southwestern USA and northern Mexico into Texas beginning late Thursday into Friday and through the weekend. This will cause moisture to “overrun” the surface cooler air and clouds and thicken and lower quickly beginning late Thursday and Thursday night with rain chances returning for late Friday through Friday night and through the weekend as well. This will result in a chilly and wet weather pattern for the weekend into early next week. At this point, it looks like surface air temperatures will remain above the freezing mark which means liquid precipitation. Early guidance suggests, on average, about an inch of rain with this system.

Although my confidence is pretty low at this point, the chilly and wet weather pattern looks to extend into the early part of next week… I’ll continue to monitor.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Thursday with my forecast confidence falling back to medium to high for Friday through the coming weekend (rain chances, timing and amounts being issue).

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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