Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 20 January 2015

…. Another Day of Sunshine and Above Average Temperatures ….
…. Mid and Late Week Changes with Clouds and Rain Chances ….
…. Sunshine Returns By Late Friday into Next Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is centered over the southeastern USA with a cold front extending southwestward from the Ohio Valley region into southern Arkansas into north Texas then westward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a developing trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is developing over the central and western USA with an upper level low pressure disturbance expected to emerge over the southwestern USA and northern Mexico over the next day or so. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 45 to 55 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues across our area. Even though we’ve seen patchy fog in eastern areas this morning and may continue to see some patchy high clouds at or above 25,000 feet.. plenty of sunshine along with unseasonably warm temperatures is due today.

The cold front.. currently to our north.. will move southward through the area later today into early tonight allowing colder surface based temperatures to move into the area tonight into tomorrow.

At the same time, as the emerging upper air low pressure disturbance out west moves eastward into the state, an overrunning pattern will develop with clouds and the increasing likelihood of rain for the area beginning rapidly late tomorrow into Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday and the first half of the day on Friday. The latest guidance suggests that Thursday will be our wet day with rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches possible during the event.

With the upper air disturbance moving east of the area by Friday midday and afternoon, we’ll see a fairly rapid clearing of the sky late Friday afternoon with plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures due for the coming weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through today and tonight. My confidence drops back to medium to high for tomorrow through Thursday and early Friday as the clouds/rainfall timing as well as precipitation amounts become issues. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday night through the coming weekend.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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