Updated 915am CT – Monday / 19 January 2015
…. The Week Starts Out with a Dry Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. Mid and Late Week Changes with Clouds and Rain Chances ….
…. Sunshine Returns Late Friday into Next Weekend ….
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure is centered over the north central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from central Oklahoma into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a weak upper level low pressure disturbance is moving eastward across west Texas otherwise a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level flow exists over the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
As we start the new week, a dry and stable weather pattern continues across our area. Even though we may continue to see some patchy high clouds at or above 25,000 feet.. plenty of sunshine is due through tomorrow.
As the weak upper air low pressure area moves eastward through the state, another cold front will move through the area by tomorrow afternoon and will begin to signal a change back to a colder and potentially wet overrunning weather pattern for the latter part of the new week. As the surface based colder air moves into our area..in the wake of the front.. for the middle and latter part of the week, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance off the Pacific Ocean will progress east southeastward into northern Mexico and the southwestern USA by Wednesday and create an overrunning pattern with clouds and the increasing likelihood of rain for the area beginning rapidly late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The latest guidance suggests that Thursday will be our wet day with rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches possible during the event. With the upper air disturbance moving east of the area by Friday midday and afternoon, we’ll see a fairly rapid clearing of the sky late Friday with plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures due for next weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow. My confidence drops back to medium to high for Wednesday.. Thursday and early Friday as the clouds/rainfall timing as well as precipitation amounts become issues. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday night through the coming weekend.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel