Updated 915am CT – Friday / 16 January 2015
…. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern ….
On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi valley. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends north south from western Nebraska into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming more southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southeastward from eastern Canada into the eastern USA. A weak eastward moving upper level low disturbance is over west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 40 to 45 mph.
Even with a weak cold front expected by late tomorrow into the predawn hours on Sunday, a dry and stable weather pattern is expected over the next few days. The front.. as it moves through the area.. will act to reinforce the air mass in place across the area. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming to above average through the weekend.
Another cold front will move through the area by next Tuesday night and will begin to signal a change back to a colder and potentially wet overrunning weather pattern for the latter part of next week. As the surface based colder air moves into our area for the middle and latter part of next week, another series of upper level low pressure disturbances off the Pacific Ocean will progress eastward and create an overrunning pattern with clouds and the increasing likelihood of rain for the area. Latest NWS guidance suggests upwards of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain for the area.. especially east of the IH35 corridor.. for the latter part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high over the next few days (through the weekend and into Monday. My confidence drops back to medium to high for Tuesday and beyond as next week as the exact frontal timing as well as clouds/rainfall timing as well as precipitation amounts become issues.
Have a good Friday and a good weekend….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel