Updated 615am CT – Tuesday / 13 January 2015

…. Chilly with Clouds and Slim Rain Chances Persisting through Mid Week ….
…. A Little More Sunshine with a Warming Trend Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. arctic high pressure is centered over the upper Mississippi valley south southwestward into Texas and the southern plains. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from eastern Canada through the central and southwestern USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 40 to 45 mph.

Moisture continues to “overrun” the surface based colder air over the area with clouds and slim precipitation characterizing our weather this afternoon through tonight and Wednesday and into Wednesday night. At this point, overnight low temperatures will remain slightly above freezing for tonight and the slim precipitation chances will hold off until tomorrow and end by the time of overnight critical temperatures tomorrow night.

By late tomorrow night.. after midnight.. clouds will break with a clear to partly cloudy sky as well as warmer temperatures expected late week into the weekend.

Clouds may thicken again by the end of the weekend as another southeastward moving cold front and a deepening trough.. or line.. upper air low pressure area approaches by early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow night (concerns: slim precipitation timing and amounts). I have very high forecast confidence Thursday through next weekend and into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel