Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 07 January 2015

…. Arctic Air Takes Over Again ….
…. Clouds and Precipitation Chances Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. arctic high pressure is building southward through the plains states into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deepening broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure covers the eastern half of Canada and the USA with a ridge of upper level high pressure over the western USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.

The arctic cold front has moved through the area with high pressure settling into the area.. with much colder temperatures.. over the next few days. Temperatures will be much below average through the latter part of the week into the weekend with a hard freeze (think: pets, pipes and plants!!) likely tonight into early tomorrow morning.

An approaching upper level low pressure disturbance.. from the west.. will approach the area by late tomorrow into Friday and into the weekend with an overrunning cloud and rain pattern setting up across the area. Temperatures may be close enough to critical levels for the possibility.. mainly north of the Austin area proper.. of some freezing and/or frozen precpitation late Friday night into mid and late morning Saturday. Rain chances along with chilly temperatures, however, will continue through Saturday night into Sunday.

In the wake of the upper air disturbance, another reinforcement of modified arctic air.. not quite as cold.. is due on Sunday with some sunshine returning to the area later on Sunday and into the first part part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tonight into Thursday and Thursday night with my confidence falling back to low to medium for Friday through the weekend with freezing/frozen precipitation possibility, of course, being the main concern with rain chances, timing and amounts also being issues.

I’ll be taking off a few more vacation days today through Sunday / 11 January 2015… in my absence, a link to NWS products/forecasts will be placed on the web page.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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