Updated 800am CT – Monday / 22 December 2014

…. A Drier Warmer Weather Pattern to Start the Week ….
…. A Cold Front Due Late Tonight with Seasonably Cool Temps Expected into Christmas ….
…. Another Late Week Cold Front ….
…. Other than Tuesday Rain Chances, No Rain Expected over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a southwest-to-northeast oriented stationary front is over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico. A southeastward moving cold front extends from a low pressure area over South Dakota into Kansas then westward into southern Colorado. Another low pressure area is across the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is deepening from the central Canada plains southward into Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

An increasing southwesterly surface wind.. ahead of a cold front due by this evening.. will result in more sunshine and well above average temperatures for Austin and south central Texas today.

As the upper level low pressure area overhead deepens and moves eastward and our winds aloft become more northwesterly, the cold front, to our northwest, will sweep southeastward through the area by this evening.

A dry and stable early winter weather pattern will continue with abundant sunshine and cooler temperatures into Christmas Eve with plenty of sunshine and a little of a warm up by Christmas Day.

Another cold front.. dry in nature.. will sweep southeastward through the area in the morning hours on Friday. The front will reinforce the dry weather pattern with a mostly clear sky and cooler temperatures expected.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the seven day forecast period with the exact timing of the cold front on Friday being the only question.

Just letting you know that I will be taking off Thursday / 25 December through Thursday / 1 January 2015.. and will return to updating my website on Friday / 2 January 2015. I will be posting a link to the latest NWS forecast for Austin and south central Texas during my absence.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel