Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 16 December 2014

…. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern (for Now) ….
…. Another Storm System Due on the Way with Rain Chances Tonight into Tomorrow ….
…. Another Storm System for the Days Before Christmas ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a cold front extends southward from a low pressure area over the southern Great Lakes into Alabama into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is settling southward.. behind the front.. from the Dakotas into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over northern Illinois. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly 30 to 40 mph.

A dry and stable late fall weather pattern is in place across the area in the wake of yesterday’s cold front.

Another quick moving upper level low pressure storm system will approach the area by later tonight into tomorrow with clouds and rain chances quickly returning to our area. As the system moves overhead, we’ll see a better chance of rain.. rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. As the system departs late Thursday night into Friday, another surface cold front will move through by early Friday morning with a high pressure area once again building in with drier and more stable air with abundant sunshine Friday into the weekend.

Longer range guidance continues to suggest another upper air low pressure storm system moves across Texas by next Monday.. Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds and rain chances will once again return with, even though my confidence has decreased a little, some potential for colder air to arrive in the area by Christmas Day.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high today and tonight. My confidence decreases to medium to high tomorrow (Wednesday) through Thursday night into early Friday with rainfall timing and amounts being the question. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday through next weekend. For Monday and beyond next week, my forecast confidence is very low.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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