Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CST Monday / 18 February 2013

Active Weather Pattern Across the Area…
Cold Front Due Later Today into this Evening with Slim Rain Chances…
Another Storm System and Cold Front with Rain and Thunderstorms Mid Week…

On this Monday… a strengthening area of surface low pressure area over the central plains with a southeastward moving cold front from eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle westward into New Mexico and Arizona. As a result of this pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad trough of upper air low pressure extends southward from Canada over the central part of the USA and into west Texas. As a result of this upper air wind flow, our upper level winds are moderate westerly.

Moderate southerly surface winds have efficiently returned low level moisture and cloud cover in the overnight hours with even a few sprinkles around.

The surface low pressure over the plains and the cold front to our northwest will move southeastward  across the area by the evening rush hour with only a slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms the front passes.

We’ll see a break in the clouds with slightly cooler temperatures and much drier air tonight into Tuesday. By tomorrow night, however, a strong upper air low pressure system and another cold front will approach the area from the west northwest with a southerly wind returning moisture quickly tomorrow night into Wednesday.

The upper air storm system will move slowly across the area Wednesday through Wednesday night with abundant atmospheric lift and instability so we will see a good chance of rain with stronger.. possibly severe.. thunderstorms in the forecast. Larger hail and strong straight line thunderstorms are the main threats with a beneficial 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rainfall possible. The southeastward moving cold front will finally move southeastward through the area in the wake of the upper air disturbance by the morning rush hour Thursday. Clouds and rain chances will taper off in the wake of the Thursday morning front.

A drier and more stable air mass will prevail in the wake of the Thursday morning cold front all the way through late week and through the weekend.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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