Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Monday / 15 December 2014

…. A Cold Front Moving Across Texas ….
…. Another Storm System Due Tomorrow Night into Late Week with Rain Chances ….
…. Another More Vigorous Storm System for the Days Before Christmas ….

On this Monday morning…. a low pressure area is over northeastern Kansas with a weak Pacific cold front extending southward into northeast Texas and then just east of the IH35 corridor to near Laredo. A stronger secondary cold front extends from the low pressure area into north central Texas then westward to south of Lubbock then northwestward into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are westerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over northeastern Kansas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 55 to 65 mph.

In the wake of a cloudy and damp Sunday, a Pacific front moved through the area earlier this morning with drier air filtering in from the west with clearing skies from west to east as well.
This drier air will allow for afternoon warming to well above average temperatures today.

By later this afternoon, a secondary stronger cold front will move through the area with high pressure building in from the north and a drier and more stable air mass prevailing through tomorrow.

Another quick moving upper level low pressure storm system will approach the area by Tuesday night into Wednesday with clouds and rain chances quickly returning to our area. As the system moves overhead, we’ll see a better chance of thunderstorms by Thursday into Thursday night. As the system departs, another surface cold front will move through by daybreak on Friday with a high pressure area once again building in with drier and more stable air with abundant sunshine Friday through the weekend.

Longer range guidance suggests another.. even more vigorous.. upper air low pressure storm system moves across Texas by late next Monday.. Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds and rain chances will once again return with some potential for much colder air to arrive in the area by Christmas Day.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow (Tuesday). My confidence falls back to high tomorrow night through Thursday night into early Friday with rainfall timing and amounts being the question. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday through next weekend. For Monday and beyond next week, my forecast confidence is low.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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