Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Monday / 08 December 2014

…. Low Clouds Give Way to Sunshine ….
…. Rain Chances Show Up Several Times in Upcoming Seven Day Forecast ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends from Texas northwestward into Colorado and the intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located from Hudson Bay in Canada southward through the lower Mississippi valley and the northern Gulf of Mexico. A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is moving eastward from the Pacific Ocean just west of the west coast of Baja California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are north northwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

Even though surface based high pressure has settled southward into the area, residual low level moisture has resulted in low clouds along the IH35 corridor (and the Balcones Escarpment) this morning. Morning visible satellite data shows the low clouds are breaking quickly with sunshine and warmer temperatures expected across the area for the balance of the day.

We could see the redevelopment of patchy fog and low clouds again on Tuesday morning with an otherwise mostly sunny day expected.

By Wednesday into Thursday, the upper air disturbance.. currently off the west coast of Mexico.. will weaken and move eastward with clouds increasing with a chance of rain reappearing in the forecast. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 inch or less.. according to the latest NWS guidance.. are expected with this passage of this weather system.

We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected by Friday into Saturday before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Monday. This second weather system appears to be more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area between midnight Sunday night and 6am Monday. Some stronger thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 to 3/4 inch with the system.

It appears that drier weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning weather system for early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Wednesday with my confidence reduced slightly to medium to high Thursday through Sunday with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for Thursday and Thursday night and then Saturday through Sunday night.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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