Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 26 November 2014

…. A Dry Stable Fall Weather Pattern ….
…. Cloud Increase Late in the Weekend into Early Next Week ….

On this Wednesday morning…. high pressure continues over the northeastern Mexico and far south Texas with another high pressure area centered over the four corners region westward over Nevada. A weak trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends from central Oklahoma southwestward into southwest Texas. A cold front is moving southward from southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a large deep area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay southward into the Mississippi/Alabama coastal regions and the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly 60 to 70 mph.

A dry and stable fall weather pattern continues across the area with temperatures a little below seasonal averages.

Little change is seen over the next few days as another reinforcing cold front moves southward over the area by tonight. The air mass, in advance of the front, will be too dry and stable for any sensible weather other than a bit of a wind shift.

In the wake of that front, surface winds will return by Friday and through the weekend and into next week. Low level moisture will be on the increase with an associated increase in cloud cover.

Another weak cold front is forecast to move southward into the area on Monday but its effect will be short lived as the front comes back northward as a warm front by next Tuesday. As this occurs, I will include a few sprinkles in the forecast.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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