Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 19 November 2014
…. Warmer Temperatures, More Clouds and Rain Chances by Late Week into the Weekend ….
On this Wednesday morning…. high pressure continues to move eastward from the southeastern USA and the lower Mississippi Valley. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends from southeastern Kansas southwestward across western Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a large area of upper level low pressure area, covering much of the eastern half of the USA, is centered over the area from Hudson Bay south southeastward to the southeastern USA. A ridge of upper air high pressure extends north northwestward from the southwestern USA back into the Pacific northwest. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.
The center of arctic surface high pressure has moved eastward and is centered over the southeastern USA and the lower Mississippi valley. Being on the west side of the surface high along with being on the east side of a developing trough..or line.. of low pressure to our west.. we’re seeing a south southwesterly surface wind across our area.
By tomorrow into Friday, as south southeasterly surface winds increase, humidity and clouds will increase. There is a slim chance of rain or rain showers in the areas as early as late afternoon tomorrow with the evening rush hour.
With the approach of an upper air low pressure disturbance and another surface cold front by late Friday into Saturday night, enough atmospheric instability and lift will develop for the possibility of rain showers and even stronger thunderstorms.
The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms for areas to our west for late Friday into Friday night with the risk more overhead and into southeast Texas for Saturday and shifting eastward thereafter.
Guidance has increased the potential rainfall amounts to 1 to 2 inches across our area with this weather system.
As the cold front passes late Saturday night… breezy.. drier and cooler air will once again build into the area from the west and northwest with clearing skies.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very tonight through the next seven days.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel