Updated 800am CT – Monday / 10 November 2014
…. Sunshine and Above Average Temperatures to Start the Week ….
…. A Strong Cold Front Due by Early Tomorrow Morning ….
…. Modified Colder Arctic Air Takes Hold on Texas Through the 7 Day Forecast ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Rain Return Late Week into the Weekend ….
On this Monday morning…. a high pressure area is over the Gulf of Mexico with a deepening low pressure area over western Nebraska into Wyoming. A developing front extends westward from northern Illinois and southern Iowa into the low pressure area over Nebraska and Wyoming then into western Montana and Idaho. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends south southwestward from the low over western Nebraska into western Kansas into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a large upper level low pressure area is over the southern parts of Hudson Bay. A deepening trough is moving southeastward from southern Canada through Montana southwestward into California. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.
High pressure, off to our east and southeast, will combine with the deepening low to our distant west northwest to produce a south southwesterly surface wind flow which will result in well above average afternoon highs today with abundant sunshine.
As the upper level low pressure trough out west moves eastward and continues to deepen, a strong arctic cold front will surge south southeastward through Texas with much colder air.. unseasonably cold for this early in the season.. taking hold in the state.
This advancing air mass will be cold enough.. under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky.. that we will see the possibility of some freezing temperatures in outlying and low lying areas, especially north and west of Austin, for Thursday and Friday mornings. If this occurs, it would be a little earlier than usual with our first freeze across the area, on average, and depending on the exact location, occurring between November 20th and December 5th.
By late Friday into the weekend, gulf moisture will start to “overrun” the colder surface based air with clouds thickening and lowering. We’ll start a few sprinkles across the area by Friday night with light rain chances increasing Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures will remain above critical levels so I just expect a cold light rain across the area.
Another reinforcing cold front, with another dose of modified arctic air, will move across the area by early Sunday morning with below average temperatures continuing into the new week. Skies will be partially clearing in the wake of the Sunday front.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very through the next seven day period.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel