Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Friday / 07 November 2014

…. Sunshine through the Weekend and Into Early Next Week ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Tomorrow ….
…. Another Stronger Cold Front Due by Monday Night ….

On this Friday morning…. a ridge, or line, of surface high pressure extends southwestward from Arkansas to near Laredo. Another high pressure area is over western Colorado. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends south southwestward from western Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward over the northeastern United States. A weak upper level low is located over northern Mexico. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are west southwesterly 30 to 35 mph.

High pressure.. which has built into Texas in the wake of our cold front earlier in the week.. is dominating Texas weather with plenty of sunshine expected over the next few days. Another reinforcing cold front will move across the area on Saturday morning but only a few clouds are expected to accompany the front. Northerly winds will pick up a bit as well.

By early next week, the upper air weather pattern will shift pretty significantly with a broad and deep upper air trough, or line, of low pressure deepening over the eastern half of the United States. As this occurs, it will create a strong northwesterly wind aloft over Texas and will allow for a strong cold front to move southward through Texas by late Monday night into Tuesday. The air behind the front will be of arctic and polar origin pretty much out of northwestern Canada. As a result, temperatures will fall to well below average with some outlying and low lying areas across our area approaching the freezing mark for overnight lows for late next week.

Initial guidance suggests that clouds and precipitation may return to the area by next weekend.. I’ll continue to monitor for that possibility.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through the next seven day period.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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